#113 Sun Belt Conference

Southern Miss

Projected 5–7 · 5 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Southern Miss win? The Ninjas project 5.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

<1%

Title

<1%

Win conf

SOS

#81

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs Alcorn State88%
W2@ Auburn8%
W3vs UConn50%
W4@ Tulane13%
W6@ Troy31%
W7vs Arkansas St57%
W8vs Louisiana44%
W9@ UL Monroe58%
W10vs James Madison16%
W11@ Louisiana Tech33%
W12vs South Alabama53%
W13@ Old Dominion14%

Chaos meter27 · CALM

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Auburn → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: <1%
16-team field: <1%
24-team field: 1%
Win conference: 3%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 0% → 0%

Pre 0%Aug 0%

Up next

vs Alcorn State· W188% WIN

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Southern Miss finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#94

-7.1 · off #69 / def #103

Talent composite

#83

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#105

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

52%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#69

EPA / play#71
Success rate#108
Explosiveness#25

Defense#103

EPA / play#54
Success rate#69

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

3★ avg

Net

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.