American Athletic Conference · 2026
Updated Aug 30, 2026The TailgateNinjas model projects Tulsa to finish 4-7 in 2026, the most likely of any record at 25%, averaging 4.5 wins across 11 rated games. Updated August 29, 2026.
Projected record
4-7
25% likely
Expected wins
4.5
11 rated games
Vegas win total
5.5
market
Model vs market
-1.0
we're lower
Win probability from our model. Non-FBS opponents aren't rated, so those games show no number.
The chance of each final record, from the per-game probabilities above. Records under 1% are hidden.
Hardest game
at Arkansas
Week 4 · 20% to win
Easiest game
vs Charlotte
Week 12 · 82% to win
Closest to a coin flip — where the season actually gets decided.