#93 American Athletic Conference

Tulsa

Projected 5–7 · 5 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Tulsa win? The Ninjas project 5.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

Title

<1%

Win conf

SOS

#103

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs Oklahoma State38%
W2@ Sam Houston73%
W3vs East Texas A&M92%
W4@ Arkansas20%
W5vs North Texas30%
W6@ Navy23%
W7@ Rice54%
W8vs Army39%
W10@ Tulane20%
W11vs FAU54%
W12vs Charlotte82%
W13@ UTSA22%

Chaos meter16 · CALM

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Arkansas → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 1%
16-team field: 1%
24-team field: 4%
Win conference: 2%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 1% → 1%

Pre 1%Aug 1%

Up next

vs Oklahoma State· W138% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Tulsa finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#104

-10 · off #105 / def #107

Talent composite

#85

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#109

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

99%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#105

EPA / play#99
Success rate#93
Explosiveness#52

Defense#107

EPA / play#68
Success rate#86

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

3.1★ avg

Net

-1

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.