American Athletic Conference · 2026
Updated Aug 30, 2026The TailgateNinjas model projects UAB to finish 3-8 in 2026, the most likely of any record at 30%, averaging 2.8 wins across 11 rated games. Updated August 29, 2026.
Projected record
3-8
30% likely
Expected wins
2.8
11 rated games
Vegas win total
3.5
market
Model vs market
-0.7
we're lower
Win probability from our model. Non-FBS opponents aren't rated, so those games show no number.
The chance of each final record, from the per-game probabilities above. Records under 1% are hidden.
Hardest game
at Illinois
Week 1 · 6% to win
Easiest game
vs Charlotte
Week 10 · 68% to win
Closest to a coin flip — where the season actually gets decided.