#122 American Athletic Conference

UAB

Projected 4–8 · 4 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does UAB win? The Ninjas project 4.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

<1%

Title

<1%

Win conf

<1%

SOS

#102

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1@ Illinois6%
W2vs UL Monroe66%
W3@ Louisiana23%
W4vs Navy20%
W5vs Samford84%
W6@ Memphis12%
W7vs East Carolina21%
W9@ South Florida10%
W10vs Charlotte68%
W11@ Temple25%
W12vs UTSA19%
W13@ North Texas9%

Chaos meter8 · CALM

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Illinois → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: <1%
16-team field: <1%
24-team field: 1%
Win conference: <1%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 0% → 0%

Pre 0%Aug 0%

Up next

@ Illinois· W16% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where UAB finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#125

-15.8 · off #80 / def #132

Talent composite

#103

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#125

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

73%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#80

EPA / play#58
Success rate#58
Explosiveness#39

Defense#132

EPA / play#135
Success rate#133

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

3★ avg

Net

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.