← Week 5 predictions

Playoff impact · Week 5

Updated Aug 30, 2026

The games that actually matter

6 of the 55 college football games in Week 5 would change who makes our projected 12-team playoff field, led by Arkansas at Texas A&M. Updated August 29, 2026.

Measured, not asserted: we build the projected field twice for every game — once with each side winning — and count the spots that change. That's why a game between two teams who are both getting in anyway can rank below one that swings a conference title.

Changes who gets in

  • Arkansas at Texas A&M2 spots swing · 85% home

    If Texas A&M wins
    Texas A&M make the field

    If Arkansas wins
    Ole Miss make the field

  • Washington at USC2 spots swing · 71% home

    If USC wins
    USC make the field

    If Washington wins
    Ole Miss make the field

  • Michigan at Minnesota2 spots swing · 22% home

    If Minnesota wins
    Ole Miss make the field

    If Michigan wins
    Michigan make the field

  • Texas Tech at Colorado2 spots swing · 15% home

    If Colorado wins
    BYU make the field

    If Texas Tech wins
    Texas Tech make the field

  • BYU at TCU2 spots swing · 35% home

    If TCU wins
    Texas Tech make the field

    If BYU wins
    BYU make the field

  • Utah State at Boise State2 spots swing · 81% home

    If Boise State wins
    Boise State make the field

    If Utah State wins
    Tulane make the field

Moves the seeding

Same twelve teams either way, but the bracket order changes.