The Tuesday Drop · Week 1

Updated Aug 30, 2026

We went 5-1 in Week 0

We went 5-1 in Week 0 — the TailgateNinjas Tuesday Drop for Week 1 of the 2026 college football season. Updated August 29, 2026.

Last week: 5–1

Straight-up record on games we called, from the Ledger.

Top of the board

Our model's current top five, with each team's chance to make the playoff.

Model vs the voters

The sharpest disagreements between our ranking and the AP poll.

We're higher

  • Michigan #7 vs #16
  • USC #8 vs #14
  • Houston #18 vs #23

Voters are higher

  • Louisville #39 vs #24
  • Georgia #9 vs #3
  • Ole Miss #15 vs #9
Every disagreement →

Upset watch

Clear market favorites our model still isn't sold on.

Published weekly. Every number here comes from the same computation that feeds the email and our social posts, so the three can never disagree — and every call is graded in public afterwards.