Preseason AP Poll · 2026

Updated Aug 30, 2026

Model vs the AP poll

Comparing the preseason AP poll with the TailgateNinjas model: 3 teams our model puts in the top 25 are unranked by the voters, and the biggest single gap is Michigan, #7 in our model and #16 in the poll. Updated August 29, 2026.

The voters rank 25 teams on reputation and results. Our model rates all 136 from schedule, roster and market inputs. Here is every place the two disagree — and because both are on the record, December decides who was right.

These are our model-only ranks — power, schedule and expected wins, with no poll input. They can differ from the board, which deliberately blends our model with public perception. Comparing the AP against a number that already contains the AP would understate every gap below.

Teams our model rates higher

The voters have these teams lower than our model does. A positive gap is how many spots further down the poll has them.

TeamOur rankAPGap
Michigan#7#16+9
USC#8#14+6
Houston#18#23+5
Notre Dame#1#4+3
Indiana#4#6+2
Penn State#16#18+2
Miami#6#7+1
Texas Tech#11#12+1

Teams the AP poll rates higher

The voters are more bullish here than the model is.

TeamOur rankAPGap
Louisville#39#24-15
Georgia#9#3-6
Ole Miss#15#9-6
Utah#27#21-6
SMU#23#19-4
BYU#17#14-3
Missouri#28#25-3
Texas A&M#10#8-2
Oklahoma#12#10-2
LSU#13#11-2

Unranked by the voters, top 25 in our model

Teams the poll left out entirely that our model rates inside its own cutoff.

TeamOur rankAPGap
Florida#20unranked
Auburn#24unranked
Arizona#25unranked

Ranked by the voters, outside our top 25

Teams carrying a poll ranking that our model doesn't rate that highly.

TeamOur rankAPGap
Utah#27#21-6
Louisville#39#24-15
Missouri#28#25-3