Mid-American Conference · 2026
Updated Aug 30, 2026The TailgateNinjas model projects Bowling Green to finish 3-7 in 2026, the most likely of any record at 31%, averaging 3.2 wins across 10 rated games. Updated August 29, 2026.
Projected record
3-7
31% likely
Expected wins
3.2
10 rated games
Vegas win total
4.5
market
Model vs market
-1.3
we're lower
Win probability from our model. Non-FBS opponents aren't rated, so those games show no number.
The chance of each final record, from the per-game probabilities above. Records under 1% are hidden.
Hardest game
at Nebraska
Week 2 · 6% to win
Easiest game
vs Ball State
Week 7 · 69% to win
Closest to a coin flip — where the season actually gets decided.