#125 Mid-American Conference

Bowling Green

Projected 5–7 · 5 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Bowling Green win? The Ninjas project 5.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

<1%

Title

<1%

Win conf

SOS

#109

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs Tarleton State80%
W2@ Nebraska6%
W3@ Iowa State10%
W4vs South Florida14%
W5@ Miami (OH)17%
W6vs Sacramento State80%
W7vs Ball State69%
W8@ Buffalo35%
W9@ W Michigan15%
W11vs Kent State67%
W12@ Toledo20%
W13vs UMass64%

Chaos meter15 · CALM

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Nebraska → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: <1%
16-team field: <1%
24-team field: <1%
Win conference: 2%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 0% → 0%

Pre 0%Aug 0%

Up next

vs Tarleton State· W180% WIN

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Bowling Green finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#113

-12.6 · off #128 / def #83

Talent composite

#107

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#94

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#128

EPA / play#129
Success rate#127
Explosiveness#68

Defense#83

EPA / play#62
Success rate#55

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

2.9★ avg

Portal out

2.9★ avg

Net

-12

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.