Atlantic Coast Conference · 2026
Updated Aug 30, 2026The TailgateNinjas model projects North Carolina to finish 3-8 in 2026, the most likely of any record at 26%, averaging 3.6 wins across 11 rated games. Updated August 29, 2026.
Projected record
3-8
26% likely
Expected wins
3.6
11 rated games
Vegas win total
4.5
market
Model vs market
-0.9
we're lower
Win probability from our model. Non-FBS opponents aren't rated, so those games show no number.
The chance of each final record, from the per-game probabilities above. Records under 1% are hidden.
Hardest game
vs Notre Dame
Week 5 · 3% to win
Easiest game
vs Syracuse
Week 8 · 62% to win
Closest to a coin flip — where the season actually gets decided.