Big 12 Conference · 2026
Updated Aug 30, 2026The TailgateNinjas model projects TCU to finish 6-5 in 2026, the most likely of any record at 25%, averaging 5.5 wins across 11 rated games. Updated August 29, 2026.
Projected record
6-5
25% likely
Expected wins
5.5
11 rated games
Vegas win total
6.5
market
Model vs market
-1.0
we're lower
Win probability from our model. Non-FBS opponents aren't rated, so those games show no number.
The chance of each final record, from the per-game probabilities above. Records under 1% are hidden.
Hardest game
at Texas Tech
Week 13 · 12% to win
Easiest game
vs Arkansas St
Week 3 · 88% to win
Closest to a coin flip — where the season actually gets decided.