#47 Big 12 Conference

TCU

Projected 7–5 · 7 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does TCU win? The Ninjas project 7.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

Title

<1%

Win conf

SOS

#39

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs North Carolina66%
W2vs Grambling98%
W3vs Arkansas St88%
W4@ UCF56%
W5vs BYU33%
W7@ Baylor41%
W8vs West Virginia70%
W9vs Kansas67%
W10@ Arizona34%
W11vs Kansas State44%
W12vs Utah42%
W13@ Texas Tech12%

Chaos meter50 · SIMMERING

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Texas Tech → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 8%
16-team field: 12%
24-team field: 20%
Win conference: 3%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 8% → 8%

Pre 8%Aug 8%

Up next

vs North Carolina· W166% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where TCU finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#37

+8.3 · off #30 / def #50

Talent composite

#32

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#24

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

61%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#30

EPA / play#48
Success rate#44
Explosiveness#50

Defense#50

EPA / play#59
Success rate#51

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

3.2★ avg

Net

-2

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.