Mountain West Conference · 2026
Updated Aug 30, 2026The TailgateNinjas model projects Utah State to finish 4-6 in 2026, the most likely of any record at 28%, averaging 3.8 wins across 10 rated games. Updated August 29, 2026.
Projected record
4-6
28% likely
Expected wins
3.8
10 rated games
Vegas win total
4.5
market
Model vs market
-0.7
we're lower
Win probability from our model. Non-FBS opponents aren't rated, so those games show no number.
The chance of each final record, from the per-game probabilities above. Records under 1% are hidden.
Hardest game
at Washington
Week 2 · 9% to win
Easiest game
vs Colorado St
Week 9 · 71% to win
Closest to a coin flip — where the season actually gets decided.