Big Ten Conference · 2026

Updated Aug 30, 2026

Iowa schedule

The TailgateNinjas model projects Iowa to finish 7-4 in 2026, the most likely of any record at 27%, averaging 6.5 wins across 11 rated games. Updated August 29, 2026.

Projected record

7-4

27% likely

Expected wins

6.5

11 rated games

Vegas win total

7.5

market

Model vs market

-1.0

we're lower

Every game

Win probability from our model. Non-FBS opponents aren't rated, so those games show no number.

How the season could end

The chance of each final record, from the per-game probabilities above. Records under 1% are hidden.

  • 7-427%
  • 6-526%
  • 8-317%
  • 5-616%
  • 9-26%
  • 4-76%
  • 3-81%
  • 10-11%

Hardest game

vs Ohio State

Week 5 · 19% to win

Easiest game

vs N Illinois

Week 1 · 98% to win

Swing games

Closest to a coin flip — where the season actually gets decided.

Washington 38%Northwestern 61%Illinois 47%