Conference USA · 2026
Updated Aug 30, 2026The TailgateNinjas model projects Middle Tennessee to finish 3-8 in 2026, the most likely of any record at 28%, averaging 3.0 wins across 11 rated games. Updated August 29, 2026.
Projected record
3-8
28% likely
Expected wins
3.0
11 rated games
Vegas win total
3.5
market
Model vs market
-0.5
we're lower
Win probability from our model. Non-FBS opponents aren't rated, so those games show no number.
The chance of each final record, from the per-game probabilities above. Records under 1% are hidden.
Hardest game
at Kansas
Week 5 · 7% to win
Easiest game
vs Nevada
Week 3 · 54% to win
Closest to a coin flip — where the season actually gets decided.