Mountain West Conference · 2026
Updated Aug 30, 2026The TailgateNinjas model projects Nevada to finish 3-7 in 2026, the most likely of any record at 27%, averaging 3.5 wins across 10 rated games. Updated August 29, 2026.
Projected record
3-7
27% likely
Expected wins
3.5
10 rated games
Vegas win total
4.5
market
Model vs market
-1.0
we're lower
Win probability from our model. Non-FBS opponents aren't rated, so those games show no number.
The chance of each final record, from the per-game probabilities above. Records under 1% are hidden.
Hardest game
at UCLA
Week 9 · 6% to win
Easiest game
at UTEP
Week 6 · 52% to win
Closest to a coin flip — where the season actually gets decided.