Mountain West Conference · 2026
Updated Aug 30, 2026The TailgateNinjas model projects San Diego State to finish 6-4 in 2026, the most likely of any record at 26%, averaging 5.6 wins across 10 rated games. Updated August 29, 2026.
Projected record
6-4
26% likely
Expected wins
5.6
10 rated games
Vegas win total
6.5
market
Model vs market
-0.9
we're lower
Win probability from our model. Non-FBS opponents aren't rated, so those games show no number.
The chance of each final record, from the per-game probabilities above. Records under 1% are hidden.
Hardest game
at UCLA
Week 2 · 28% to win
Easiest game
vs Utah State
Week 11 · 73% to win
Closest to a coin flip — where the season actually gets decided.