Big 12 Conference · 2026
Updated Aug 30, 2026The TailgateNinjas model projects Texas Tech to finish 10-1 in 2026, the most likely of any record at 36%, averaging 9.6 wins across 11 rated games. Updated August 29, 2026.
Projected record
10-1
36% likely
Expected wins
9.6
11 rated games
Vegas win total
10.5
market
Model vs market
-0.9
we're lower
Win probability from our model. Non-FBS opponents aren't rated, so those games show no number.
The chance of each final record, from the per-game probabilities above. Records under 1% are hidden.
Hardest game
at Baylor
Week 12 · 78% to win
Easiest game
vs Sam Houston
Week 4 · 99% to win
Closest to a coin flip — where the season actually gets decided.