Derby County FC

The Ninjas' projection

2026/27 fixtures · model win probability

Each match, from Derby County's side — the model's odds they win / draw / lose. They add up to 100%.

• MD1ACharlton1-2
• MD2HCardiff2-2
• MD3HSwansea0-3
• MD4APortsmouth2-0
• MD5AWest Ham42% / 27% / 31%
• MD6HWest Brom46% / 26% / 28%
• MD7HBirmingham43% / 26% / 31%
• MD8ABurnley42% / 27% / 31%
• MD9HWrexham43% / 25% / 32%
• MD10AQPR38% / 25% / 37%
• MD11HStoke45% / 26% / 29%
• MD12ASheffield Utd35% / 25% / 40%
• MD13AMillwall31% / 26% / 43%
• MD14HNorwich42% / 26% / 32%
• MD15HBolton51% / 25% / 23%
• MD16ASouthampton29% / 24% / 47%
• MD17AWolverhampton42% / 27% / 31%
• MD18HWatford47% / 25% / 28%
• MD19AMiddlesbrough29% / 26% / 45%
• MD20HBristol City44% / 26% / 31%
• MD21ABlackburn38% / 28% / 35%
• MD22HLincoln City51% / 25% / 23%
• MD23APreston36% / 26% / 38%
• MD24HSheffield Utd44% / 25% / 31%
• MD25HBlackburn47% / 27% / 27%
• MD26AStoke35% / 27% / 38%
• MD27HMillwall40% / 27% / 34%
• MD28ANorwich33% / 26% / 41%
• MD29ABolton42% / 27% / 31%
• MD30HSouthampton38% / 25% / 37%
• MD31ABirmingham34% / 26% / 40%
• MD32HQPR48% / 24% / 28%
• MD33HBurnley51% / 25% / 23%
• MD34AWrexham34% / 25% / 41%
• MD35ACardiff42% / 27% / 31%
• MD36HCharlton47% / 26% / 27%
• MD37AWatford37% / 26% / 36%
• MD38HMiddlesbrough38% / 26% / 36%
• MD39HPreston46% / 26% / 29%
• MD40ALincoln City42% / 27% / 31%
• MD41AWest Brom37% / 27% / 36%
• MD42HWest Ham51% / 25% / 23%
• MD43ASwansea35% / 26% / 39%
• MD44HPortsmouth48% / 26% / 27%
• MD45ABristol City34% / 26% / 40%
• MD46HWolverhampton51% / 25% / 23%

Win / draw / loss from Derby County's view, from the Poisson match model. See the full table for how it's built.

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