Southampton FC

The Ninjas' projection

2026/27 fixtures · model win probability

Each match, from Southampton's side — the model's odds they win / draw / lose. They add up to 100%.

• MD1AWatford1-2
• MD2HStoke3-1
• MD3HMillwall5-1
• MD4ABirmingham1-1
• MD5ALincoln City47% / 26% / 28%
• MD6HSwansea49% / 25% / 26%
• MD7HBristol City49% / 25% / 27%
• MD8AWrexham38% / 25% / 37%
• MD9HPortsmouth53% / 24% / 23%
• MD10ANorwich37% / 26% / 37%
• MD11HBolton56% / 23% / 20%
• MD12AWest Ham47% / 26% / 28%
• MD13HQPR53% / 23% / 24%
• MD14AWest Brom41% / 26% / 33%
• MD15APreston41% / 26% / 34%
• MD16HDerby County47% / 24% / 29%
• MD17ASheffield Utd39% / 25% / 36%
• MD18HMiddlesbrough42% / 26% / 32%
• MD19AWolverhampton47% / 26% / 28%
• MD20HBurnley56% / 23% / 20%
• MD21ACardiff47% / 26% / 28%
• MD22HBlackburn52% / 25% / 23%
• MD23ACharlton42% / 26% / 31%
• MD24HWest Ham56% / 23% / 20%
• MD25HCardiff56% / 23% / 20%
• MD26ABolton47% / 26% / 28%
• MD27AQPR43% / 25% / 33%
• MD28HWest Brom51% / 25% / 24%
• MD29HPreston51% / 24% / 25%
• MD30ADerby County37% / 25% / 38%
• MD31ABristol City39% / 26% / 35%
• MD32HNorwich47% / 25% / 28%
• MD33HWrexham48% / 24% / 28%
• MD34APortsmouth43% / 26% / 31%
• MD35AStoke40% / 26% / 34%
• MD36HWatford52% / 24% / 24%
• MD37AMiddlesbrough33% / 26% / 41%
• MD38HWolverhampton56% / 23% / 20%
• MD39HCharlton52% / 25% / 23%
• MD40ABlackburn42% / 27% / 31%
• MD41ASwansea39% / 26% / 35%
• MD42HLincoln City56% / 23% / 20%
• MD43AMillwall35% / 26% / 39%
• MD44HBirmingham48% / 25% / 27%
• MD45ABurnley47% / 26% / 28%
• MD46HSheffield Utd49% / 24% / 27%

Win / draw / loss from Southampton's view, from the Poisson match model. See the full table for how it's built.

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