#131 American Athletic Conference

Charlotte

Projected 3–9 · 3 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Charlotte win? The Ninjas project 3.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

<1%

Title

<1%

Win conf

<1%

SOS

#74

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs The Citadel78%
W2@ Ole Miss2%
W3@ Appalachian State23%
W4vs Louisiana28%
W5vs Memphis14%
W6@ North Texas6%
W7@ Temple18%
W9vs Tulane13%
W10@ UAB32%
W11vs East Carolina15%
W12@ Tulsa18%
W13vs Navy14%

Chaos meter4 · CALM

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Ole Miss → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: <1%
16-team field: <1%
24-team field: <1%
Win conference: <1%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 0% → 0%

Pre 0%Aug 0%

Up next

vs The Citadel· W178% WIN

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Charlotte finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#134

-26.7 · off #132 / def #132

Talent composite

#108

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#144

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

24%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#132

EPA / play#134
Success rate#129
Explosiveness#73

Defense#132

EPA / play#115
Success rate#136

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

3★ avg

Net

-8

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.