#54 American Athletic Conference

East Carolina

Projected 8–4 · 8 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does East Carolina win? The Ninjas project 8.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

Title

<1%

Win conf

10%

SOS

#82

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1@ Alabama13%
W2vs Appalachian State81%
W3@ Old Dominion38%
W4vs North Carolina Central96%
W6vs Rice83%
W7@ UAB79%
W8@ Memphis40%
W9vs Temple77%
W10vs South Florida52%
W11@ Charlotte85%
W12@ Army43%
W13vs FAU73%

Chaos meter20 · CALM

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Alabama → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 2%
16-team field: 4%
24-team field: 12%
Win conference: 10%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 2% → 2%

Pre 2%Aug 2%

Up next

@ Alabama· W113% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where East Carolina finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#38

+8 · off #33 / def #51

Talent composite

#78

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#77

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

51%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#33

EPA / play#49
Success rate#30
Explosiveness#118

Defense#51

EPA / play#16
Success rate#24

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

3★ avg

Net

-2

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.