#57 American Athletic Conference

Memphis

Projected 8–4 · 8 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Memphis win? The Ninjas project 8.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

Title

<1%

Win conf

10%

SOS

#104

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs Arkansas St84%
W1@ UNLV56%
W2@ Boise State36%
W3vs UT Martin97%
W5@ Charlotte86%
W6vs UAB88%
W7@ Tulane38%
W8vs East Carolina60%
W9vs Army61%
W11@ South Florida38%
W12@ Navy42%
W13vs Temple78%

Chaos meter32 · SIMMERING

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Boise State → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 3%
16-team field: 5%
24-team field: 13%
Win conference: 10%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 3% → 3%

Pre 3%Aug 3%

Up next

vs Arkansas St· W184% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Memphis finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#39

+7.6 · off #21 / def #75

Talent composite

#59

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#60

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

12%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#21

EPA / play#24
Success rate#39
Explosiveness#33

Defense#75

EPA / play#78
Success rate#60

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

2.9★ avg

Net

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.