#40 American Athletic Conference

Tulane

Projected 8–4 · 8 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Tulane win? The Ninjas project 8.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

Title

<1%

Win conf

11%

SOS

#106

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1@ Duke51%
W2vs South Alabama84%
W3@ Kansas State27%
W4vs Southern Miss87%
W6@ Army48%
W7vs Memphis62%
W8vs UTSA60%
W9@ Charlotte87%
W10vs Tulsa80%
W11@ Rice77%
W12vs North Texas54%
W13@ South Florida41%

Chaos meter30 · SIMMERING

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Kansas State → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 4%
16-team field: 6%
24-team field: 15%
Win conference: 11%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 4% → 4%

Pre 4%Aug 4%

Up next

@ Duke· W151% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Tulane finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#45

+6.3 · off #35 / def #71

Talent composite

#68

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#74

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

15%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#35

EPA / play#41
Success rate#42
Explosiveness#94

Defense#71

EPA / play#67
Success rate#110

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3.1★ avg

Portal out

3★ avg

Net

-7

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.