#103 Sun Belt Conference

Appalachian State

Projected 6–6 · 6 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Appalachian State win? The Ninjas project 6.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

<1%

Title

<1%

Win conf

SOS

#115

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs Maine90%
W2@ East Carolina19%
W3vs Charlotte77%
W4@ NC State15%
W6vs Old Dominion28%
W7@ Coastal Carolina50%
W8vs James Madison19%
W9@ GA Southern44%
W10vs Georgia St77%
W11@ Marshall27%
W12vs UL Monroe76%
W13@ South Alabama42%

Chaos meter12 · CALM

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to NC State → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: <1%
16-team field: 1%
24-team field: 2%
Win conference: 5%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 0% → 0%

Pre 0%Aug 0%

Up next

vs Maine· W190% WIN

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Appalachian State finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#111

-11.4 · off #100 / def #122

Talent composite

#79

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#116

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

14%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#100

EPA / play#108
Success rate#87
Explosiveness#104

Defense#122

EPA / play#86
Success rate#116

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

2.9★ avg

Net

-3

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.