Big 12 Conference · 2026
Updated Aug 30, 2026The TailgateNinjas model projects Kansas State to finish 8-3 in 2026, the most likely of any record at 25%, averaging 7.4 wins across 11 rated games. Updated August 29, 2026.
Projected record
8-3
25% likely
Expected wins
7.4
11 rated games
Vegas win total
8.5
market
Model vs market
-1.1
we're lower
Win probability from our model. Non-FBS opponents aren't rated, so those games show no number.
The chance of each final record, from the per-game probabilities above. Records under 1% are hidden.
Hardest game
at Arizona State
Week 8 · 53% to win
Easiest game
vs Washington St
Week 2 · 88% to win
Closest to a coin flip — where the season actually gets decided.