#30 Big 12 Conference

Kansas State

Projected 8–4 · 8 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Kansas State win? The Ninjas project 8.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

20%

Title

Win conf

SOS

#79

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs Nicholls99%
W2vs Washington St88%
W3vs Tulane73%
W4@ Cincinnati64%
W6vs Houston57%
W7vs Kansas78%
W8@ Arizona State53%
W9@ Colorado69%
W10vs Oklahoma State78%
W11@ TCU56%
W12vs Arizona63%
W13@ Iowa State65%

Chaos meter61 · HEATING UP

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Arizona State → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 20%
16-team field: 28%
24-team field: 40%
Win conference: 8%
National title: 1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 20% → 20%

Pre 20%Aug 20%

Up next

vs Nicholls· W199% WIN

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Kansas State finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#42

+7 · off #46 / def #58

Talent composite

#47

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#35

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

69%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#46

EPA / play#37
Success rate#92
Explosiveness#6

Defense#58

EPA / play#56
Success rate#45

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

3.1★ avg

Net

-7

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.