Big Ten Conference · 2026
Updated Aug 30, 2026The TailgateNinjas model projects Michigan State to finish 4-8 in 2026, the most likely of any record at 26%, averaging 4.5 wins across 12 rated games. Updated August 29, 2026.
Projected record
4-8
26% likely
Expected wins
4.5
12 rated games
Vegas win total
4.5
market
Model vs market
-0.0
we're lower
Win probability from our model. Non-FBS opponents aren't rated, so those games show no number.
The chance of each final record, from the per-game probabilities above. Records under 1% are hidden.
Hardest game
at Notre Dame
Week 3 · 2% to win
Easiest game
vs E Michigan
Week 2 · 86% to win
Closest to a coin flip — where the season actually gets decided.