Conference USA · 2026
Updated Aug 30, 2026The TailgateNinjas model projects New Mexico St to finish 4-7 in 2026, the most likely of any record at 25%, averaging 3.9 wins across 11 rated games. Updated August 29, 2026.
Projected record
4-7
25% likely
Expected wins
3.9
11 rated games
Vegas win total
4.5
market
Model vs market
-0.6
we're lower
Win probability from our model. Non-FBS opponents aren't rated, so those games show no number.
The chance of each final record, from the per-game probabilities above. Records under 1% are hidden.
Hardest game
at Florida State
Week 1 · 7% to win
Easiest game
at Middle Tennessee
Week 13 · 54% to win
Closest to a coin flip — where the season actually gets decided.