#45 Big Ten Conference

Northwestern

Projected 5–7 · 5 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Northwestern win? The Ninjas project 5.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

Title

<1%

Win conf

<1%

SOS

#14

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs South Dakota State97%
W3vs Colorado67%
W4@ Indiana5%
W5vs Penn State35%
W6vs Ball State95%
W7@ Michigan State50%
W8vs Rutgers72%
W9@ Oregon5%
W10vs Iowa39%
W11@ Ohio State6%
W12@ Minnesota45%
W13@ Illinois29%

Chaos meter26 · CALM

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Oregon → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 3%
16-team field: 6%
24-team field: 11%
Win conference: <1%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 3% → 3%

Pre 3%Aug 3%

Up next

vs South Dakota State· W197% WIN

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Northwestern finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#51

+5.8 · off #90 / def #30

Talent composite

#57

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#66

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

68%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#90

EPA / play#84
Success rate#60
Explosiveness#110

Defense#30

EPA / play#80
Success rate#123

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3.1★ avg

Portal out

3.4★ avg

Net

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.