Pac-12 Conference

Model projection

Conference favorite

Washington St

Top of the Pac-12 Conference board · 2% to make the 12

Best playoff odds

Washington St

2% chance at the 12-team field

Projected in the 12

None in the current field.

0 teams in our 12-team projection

Team

Rating

Proj W

SOS

Vegas O/U

CFP%

Washington St

4.7

#57

4.5

Oregon St

3.7

#64

3.5

Projected wins run each team's real schedule through the model; Rating is national board strength. A strong team on a brutal schedule can out-rate its win total (and vice-versa).

Oregon St

3.7 projected wins · 11 games

Toughest: Texas Tech (4%) · Easiest: Montana (85%)

0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #64

Vegas win total3.5

Wk 1
@ Houston
Vegas +18.5
Likely Loss
12%
Wk 2
vs Texas Tech
Likely Loss
4%
Wk 3
vs Montana
Likely Win
85%
Wk 4
@ UTEP
Lean Win
65%
Wk 5
@ Colorado St
Lean Loss
41%
Wk 6
vs San Diego State
Likely Loss
27%
Wk 7
vs Washington St
Lean Loss
38%
Wk 9
@ Fresno State
Likely Loss
18%
Wk 10
vs Texas St
Lean Loss
33%
Wk 11
@ Boise State
Likely Loss
10%
Wk 12
vs Utah State
Lean Loss
43%

Washington St

4.7 projected wins · 11 games

Toughest: Washington (8%) · Easiest: Duquesne (93%)

2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #57

Vegas win total4.5

Wk 1
@ Washington
Vegas +21.5
Likely Loss
8%
Wk 2
@ Kansas State
Likely Loss
12%
Wk 3
vs Duquesne
Likely Win
93%
Wk 4
vs Arizona
Likely Loss
25%
Wk 5
vs Fresno State
Toss-up
48%
Wk 6
@ Utah State
Toss-up
47%
Wk 7
@ Oregon St
Lean Win
62%
Wk 8
vs Boise State
Lean Loss
33%
Wk 9
@ San Diego State
Likely Loss
31%
Wk 11
vs Colorado St
Likely Win
75%
Wk 12
@ Texas St
Lean Loss
37%

How to read it

Expected wins add up each game's win chance. League wins count only conference games; overall wins include the full schedule. Labels translate those probabilities into plain language: likely win, lean win, toss-up, lean loss, and likely loss. The full national playoff picture lives on the home page.

Model projection