#120 Mountain West Conference

Colorado St

Projected 4–7 · 4 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Colorado St win? The Ninjas project 4.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

<1%

Title

<1%

Win conf

SOS

#99

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs Wyoming63%
W2vs Southern Utah86%
W3vs BYU7%
W4@ UTSA12%
W5vs Oregon St59%
W7@ Texas St21%
W8vs San Diego State28%
W9@ Utah State29%
W10vs Boise State18%
W11@ Washington St25%
W12@ Fresno State18%

Chaos meter9 · CALM

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to BYU → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: <1%
16-team field: <1%
24-team field: 1%
Win conference: 2%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 0% → 0%

Pre 0%Aug 0%

Up next

vs Wyoming· W163% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Colorado St finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#124

-15.6 · off #120 / def #105

Talent composite

#92

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#106

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

50%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#120

EPA / play#94
Success rate#103
Explosiveness#86

Defense#105

EPA / play#119
Success rate#120

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3.1★ avg

Portal out

3★ avg

Net

-6

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.