#25 Big 12 Conference

Arizona

Projected 7–5 · 7 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Arizona win? The Ninjas project 7.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

12%

Title

<1%

Win conf

SOS

#42

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs Northern Arizona98%
W2@ BYU27%
W3vs N Illinois97%
W4@ Washington St75%
W5vs Cincinnati73%
W6@ West Virginia63%
W8vs Iowa State75%
W9@ Texas Tech17%
W10vs TCU66%
W11vs Utah50%
W12@ Kansas State37%
W13vs Arizona State63%

Chaos meter42 · SIMMERING

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Texas Tech → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 12%
16-team field: 18%
24-team field: 29%
Win conference: 5%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 12% → 12%

Pre 12%Aug 12%

Up next

vs Northern Arizona· W198% WIN

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Arizona finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#28

+12 · off #29 / def #25

Talent composite

#67

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#50

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

56%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#29

EPA / play#69
Success rate#66
Explosiveness#51

Defense#25

EPA / play#26
Success rate#27

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

2.9★ avg

Net

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.