#18 Big 12 Conference

Houston

Projected 8–4 · 8 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Houston win? The Ninjas project 8.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

17%

Title

Win conf

SOS

#66

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs Oregon St94%
W2vs Southern99%
W3@ Texas Tech20%
W4@ GA Southern87%
W5vs UCF82%
W6@ Kansas State43%
W7vs Oklahoma State78%
W8@ Utah40%
W10vs Cincinnati78%
W11@ Colorado70%
W12@ West Virginia69%
W13vs Baylor71%

Chaos meter46 · SIMMERING

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Texas Tech → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 17%
16-team field: 25%
24-team field: 39%
Win conference: 8%
National title: 1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 17% → 17%

Pre 17%Aug 17%

Up next

vs Oregon St· W194% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Houston finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#40

+7.4 · off #44 / def #46

Talent composite

#66

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#52

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

105%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#44

EPA / play#101
Success rate#79
Explosiveness#78

Defense#46

EPA / play#47
Success rate#63

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

3★ avg

Net

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.