Mid-American Conference · 2026
Updated Aug 30, 2026The TailgateNinjas model projects Ball State to finish 2-8 in 2026, the most likely of any record at 31%, averaging 2.3 wins across 10 rated games. Updated August 29, 2026.
Projected record
2-8
31% likely
Expected wins
2.3
10 rated games
Vegas win total
3.5
market
Model vs market
-1.2
we're lower
Win probability from our model. Non-FBS opponents aren't rated, so those games show no number.
The chance of each final record, from the per-game probabilities above. Records under 1% are hidden.
Hardest game
at Ohio State
Week 1 · 0% to win
Easiest game
at Kent State
Week 4 · 40% to win
Closest to a coin flip — where the season actually gets decided.