Southeastern Conference · 2026
Updated Aug 30, 2026The TailgateNinjas model projects Texas to finish 9-3 in 2026, the most likely of any record at 27%, averaging 9.3 wins across 12 rated games. Updated August 29, 2026.
Projected record
9-3
27% likely
Expected wins
9.3
12 rated games
Vegas win total
9.5
market
Model vs market
-0.2
we're lower
Win probability from our model. Non-FBS opponents aren't rated, so those games show no number.
The chance of each final record, from the per-game probabilities above. Records under 1% are hidden.
Hardest game
vs Ohio State
Week 2 · 51% to win
Easiest game
vs Texas St
Week 1 · 96% to win
Closest to a coin flip — where the season actually gets decided.