#112 Conference USA

Missouri St

Projected 5–7 · 5 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Missouri St win? The Ninjas project 5.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

<1%

Title

<1%

Win conf

SOS

#48

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1@ Texas A&M3%
W2vs Lindenwood86%
W3vs Marshall33%
W4@ SMU6%
W6@ Western Kentucky28%
W7vs Kennesaw St48%
W8@ Delaware37%
W9vs Sam Houston72%
W10@ FIU32%
W11vs New Mexico St64%
W12@ Jax State30%
W13vs Liberty36%

Chaos meter26 · CALM

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Texas A&M → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: <1%
16-team field: <1%
24-team field: 1%
Win conference: 6%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 0% → 0%

Pre 0%Aug 0%

Up next

@ Texas A&M· W13% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Missouri St finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#108

-10.7 · off #77 / def #118

Talent composite

#129

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#136

2025 signing class

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#77

EPA / play#66
Success rate#110
Explosiveness#2

Defense#118

EPA / play#122
Success rate#88

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

2.9★ avg

Net

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.