American Athletic Conference · 2026
Updated Aug 30, 2026The TailgateNinjas model projects UTSA to finish 7-4 in 2026, the most likely of any record at 26%, averaging 6.6 wins across 11 rated games. Updated August 29, 2026.
Projected record
7-4
26% likely
Expected wins
6.6
11 rated games
Vegas win total
7.5
market
Model vs market
-0.9
we're lower
Win probability from our model. Non-FBS opponents aren't rated, so those games show no number.
The chance of each final record, from the per-game probabilities above. Records under 1% are hidden.
Hardest game
at Texas
Week 3 · 7% to win
Easiest game
vs Colorado St
Week 4 · 88% to win
Closest to a coin flip — where the season actually gets decided.