#86 American Athletic Conference

FAU

Projected 6–6 · 6 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does FAU win? The Ninjas project 6.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

Title

<1%

Win conf

SOS

#77

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1@ Florida10%
W2vs Navy40%
W3vs FIU69%
W4@ UL Monroe73%
W5vs Texas Southern93%
W7@ Army28%
W8vs Rice72%
W9@ North Texas20%
W10vs UTSA38%
W11@ Tulsa46%
W12vs South Florida36%
W13@ East Carolina27%

Chaos meter20 · CALM

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Florida → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 1%
16-team field: 1%
24-team field: 5%
Win conference: 3%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 1% → 1%

Pre 1%Aug 1%

Up next

@ Florida· W110% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where FAU finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#98

-8.7 · off #64 / def #131

Talent composite

#82

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#85

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

21%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#64

EPA / play#76
Success rate#98
Explosiveness#7

Defense#131

EPA / play#114
Success rate#100

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

2.9★ avg

Portal out

3★ avg

Net

-8

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.