#53 Sun Belt Conference

Old Dominion

Projected 9–3 · 9 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Old Dominion win? The Ninjas project 9.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

Title

<1%

Win conf

19%

SOS

#112

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs Norfolk State97%
W2@ Virginia Tech49%
W3vs East Carolina62%
W4vs James Madison46%
W5@ Georgia St86%
W6@ Appalachian State72%
W7vs GA Southern84%
W8@ Louisiana Tech68%
W9vs Marshall72%
W10@ Coastal Carolina78%
W12@ UConn70%
W13vs Southern Miss86%

Chaos meter29 · CALM

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to James Madison → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 5%
16-team field: 7%
24-team field: 16%
Win conference: 19%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 5% → 5%

Pre 5%Aug 5%

Up next

vs Norfolk State· W197% WIN

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Old Dominion finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#49

+5.9 · off #39 / def #48

Talent composite

#122

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#102

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

74%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#39

EPA / play#28
Success rate#34
Explosiveness#47

Defense#48

EPA / play#8
Success rate#26

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

3.1★ avg

Net

-7

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.