Big Ten Conference · 2026
Updated Aug 30, 2026The TailgateNinjas model projects Penn State to finish 9-3 in 2026, the most likely of any record at 28%, averaging 8.5 wins across 12 rated games. Updated August 29, 2026.
Projected record
9-3
28% likely
Expected wins
8.5
12 rated games
Vegas win total
8.5
market
Model vs market
+0.0
we're higher
Win probability from our model. Non-FBS opponents aren't rated, so those games show no number.
The chance of each final record, from the per-game probabilities above. Records under 1% are hidden.
Hardest game
at Michigan
Week 7 · 27% to win
Easiest game
vs Buffalo
Week 3 · 95% to win
Closest to a coin flip — where the season actually gets decided.