#59 Big 12 Conference

Cincinnati

Projected 6–6 · 6 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Cincinnati win? The Ninjas project 6.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

Title

<1%

Win conf

SOS

#20

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs Boston College77%
W2vs Western Carolina97%
W3vs Miami (OH)73%
W4vs Kansas State36%
W5@ Arizona27%
W7@ West Virginia46%
W8vs Texas Tech16%
W9vs Utah34%
W10@ Houston22%
W11@ Iowa State44%
W12vs Colorado63%
W13@ BYU16%

Chaos meter29 · CALM

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to BYU → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 5%
16-team field: 7%
24-team field: 13%
Win conference: 2%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 5% → 5%

Pre 5%Aug 5%

Up next

vs Boston College· W177% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Cincinnati finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#56

+4.5 · off #50 / def #67

Talent composite

#73

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#61

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

79%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#50

EPA / play#16
Success rate#21
Explosiveness#32

Defense#67

EPA / play#93
Success rate#101

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

3.1★ avg

Net

-1

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.