#21 Southeastern Conference

Tennessee

Projected 7–5 · 7 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Tennessee win? The Ninjas project 7.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

20%

Title

Win conf

SOS

#36

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs Furman99%
W2@ Georgia Tech66%
W3vs Kennesaw St94%
W4vs Texas30%
W5vs Auburn67%
W6@ Arkansas66%
W7vs Alabama48%
W8@ South Carolina52%
W10vs Kentucky81%
W11@ Texas A&M30%
W12vs LSU48%
W13@ Vanderbilt64%

Chaos meter61 · HEATING UP

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Texas A&M → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 20%
16-team field: 27%
24-team field: 38%
Win conference: 5%
National title: 1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 20% → 20%

Pre 20%Aug 20%

Up next

vs Furman· W199% WIN

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Tennessee finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#19

+15 · off #7 / def #63

Talent composite

#16

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#11

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

22%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#7

EPA / play#8
Success rate#4
Explosiveness#59

Defense#63

EPA / play#61
Success rate#112

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3.2★ avg

Portal out

3.3★ avg

Net

-8

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.