#65 Big 12 Conference

Oklahoma State

Projected 5–7 · 5 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Oklahoma State win? The Ninjas project 5.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

Title

<1%

Win conf

SOS

#44

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1@ Tulsa62%
W2vs Oregon7%
W3vs Murray State96%
W4@ West Virginia45%
W6vs UCF63%
W7@ Houston22%
W8vs Colorado63%
W9@ Iowa State43%
W10@ Kansas State22%
W11vs Texas Tech16%
W12@ Arizona State31%
W13vs Kansas59%

Chaos meter35 · SIMMERING

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Oregon → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 4%
16-team field: 6%
24-team field: 12%
Win conference: 2%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 4% → 4%

Pre 4%Aug 4%

Up next

@ Tulsa· W162% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Oklahoma State finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#121

-15.1 · off #131 / def #100

Talent composite

#49

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#53

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

45%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#131

EPA / play#135
Success rate#133
Explosiveness#111

Defense#100

EPA / play#127
Success rate#107

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3.1★ avg

Portal out

3★ avg

Net

-10

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.