#33 Sun Belt Conference

James Madison

Projected 10–2 · 10 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does James Madison win? The Ninjas project 10.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

Title

<1%

Win conf

35%

SOS

#114

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs Liberty83%
W2vs Wagner98%
W3@ San Diego State63%
W4@ Old Dominion54%
W5vs Marshall81%
W6@ GA Southern82%
W7vs Georgia St95%
W8@ Appalachian State81%
W9vs Troy86%
W10@ Southern Miss84%
W11@ UConn79%
W13vs Coastal Carolina92%

Chaos meter26 · CALM

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin the Sun Belt Conference → the auto-bid and you're in.
RISKLose to Old Dominion → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 9%
16-team field: 13%
24-team field: 27%
Win conference: 35%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 9% → 9%

Pre 9%Aug 9%

Up next

vs Liberty· W183% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where James Madison finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#27

+12.3 · off #18 / def #39

Talent composite

#127

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#108

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

78%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#18

EPA / play#31
Success rate#36
Explosiveness#37

Defense#39

EPA / play#6
Success rate#1

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

3★ avg

Net

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.