#69 Sun Belt Conference

Marshall

Projected 8–4 · 8 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Marshall win? The Ninjas project 8.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

Title

<1%

Win conf

10%

SOS

#94

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1@ Penn State13%
W2vs Middle Tennessee89%
W3@ Missouri St67%
W4vs Gardner-Webb94%
W5@ James Madison19%
W6vs Coastal Carolina79%
W8vs South Alabama73%
W9@ Old Dominion28%
W10@ GA Southern60%
W11vs Appalachian State73%
W12vs Georgia St87%
W13@ UL Monroe76%

Chaos meter10 · CALM

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Penn State → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 1%
16-team field: 2%
24-team field: 6%
Win conference: 10%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 1% → 1%

Pre 1%Aug 1%

Up next

@ Penn State· W113% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Marshall finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#86

-4.5 · off #52 / def #118

Talent composite

#89

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#120

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

100%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#52

EPA / play#72
Success rate#49
Explosiveness#130

Defense#118

EPA / play#73
Success rate#36

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

3.1★ avg

Net

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.