#109 Sun Belt Conference

Arkansas St

Projected 6–6 · 6 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Arkansas St win? The Ninjas project 6.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

<1%

Title

<1%

Win conf

SOS

#119

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1@ Memphis16%
W2vs West Georgia88%
W3@ TCU12%
W4vs Kennesaw St54%
W5@ Louisiana30%
W6vs South Alabama54%
W7@ Southern Miss43%
W8vs Georgia St74%
W10vs UL Monroe73%
W11@ Coastal Carolina46%
W12@ Louisiana Tech34%
W13vs Troy47%

Chaos meter23 · CALM

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to TCU → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: <1%
16-team field: 1%
24-team field: 2%
Win conference: 4%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 0% → 0%

Pre 0%Aug 0%

Up next

@ Memphis· W116% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Arkansas St finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#100

-8.8 · off #90 / def #111

Talent composite

#88

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#75

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

59%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#90

EPA / play#110
Success rate#75
Explosiveness#121

Defense#111

EPA / play#97
Success rate#97

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

2.9★ avg

Net

-13

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.