Notre Dame
11.4 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Miami (80%) · Easiest: Rice (99%)
0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #50
Vegas win total11.5
Conference preview
FBS Independent
Our projected 2026 finish for the FBS independents, with each team's game-by-game schedule.
Model projection
Conference favorite
Notre DameTop of the FBS Independent board · 83% to make the 12
Best playoff odds
Notre Dame83% chance at the 12-team field
Projected in the 12
1 team in our 12-team projection
Projected wins run each team's real schedule through the model; Rating is national board strength. A strong team on a brutal schedule can out-rate its win total (and vice-versa).
Schedule paths
Projected wins, schedule strength, and the weekly edge for each team — the same forecast as the board above.
UConn
5.8 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: James Madison (21%) · Easiest: Lafayette (91%)
2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #117
Vegas win total5.5
How to read it
Expected wins add up each game's win chance. League wins count only conference games; overall wins include the full schedule. Labels translate those probabilities into plain language: likely win, lean win, toss-up, lean loss, and likely loss. The full national playoff picture lives on the home page.