Week 1 · Bracket movers

Game Impact

Not the biggest names — the biggest stakes. These are the games whose outcomes swing the playoff field the most: close matchups between teams with everything to play for.

1

SMU17%

at

Florida State9%

SMU −2.5

100

A toss-up with real playoff stakes.

2

vs

Ole Miss −6.5

95

Playoff implications for the contender.

3

at

Virginia −3.5

84

A toss-up with real playoff stakes.

4

at

LSU30%

LSU −11

79

Playoff implications for the contender.

5

at

California −1.5

65

A toss-up with real playoff stakes.

6

vs

Auburn −6.5

64

Playoff implications for the contender.

7

at

James Madison9%

James Madison −6

34

Playoff implications for the contender.

8

North Carolina2%

vs

TCU −6.5

33

Playoff implications for the contender.

9

at

Georgia Tech −7

33

Playoff implications for the contender.

10

at

Miami −21.5

21

Playoff implications for the contender.

11

at

UNLV −3

21

A toss-up with real playoff stakes.

12

at

Duke −9

20

Playoff implications for the contender.

Impact (0–100) scores how much a game moves the 12-team playoff picture: how much each team's playoff odds are genuinely in play, weighted by how close the game projects to be. A coin flip between two bubble teams scores high; a blowout — or a game between two locks — scores low. % is each team's playoff chance.